Growth expected in the EU
In its forecast published in November 2025, the European Commission assumes that economic output in the EU will continue to increase. At 1.4 per cent, gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 is expected to reach the growth level of the reporting period. During the year, growth rates are expected to be 0.4 per cent in all quarters. The fundamentally positive growth expectations for the EU as a whole are evident in all Bechtle markets. At the lower end of the scale is Ireland with an expected increase of 0.2 per cent, followed by Italy and France with 0.8 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. Poland is expected to have the highest growth rates at 3.5 per cent, followed by Spain at 2.3 per cent. The momentum is expected to increase marginally in 2027: Economic growth in the EU is estimated at 1.5 per cent for this period.
Economic development in our core market of Germany is expected to be more positive in 2026 compared to the reporting period. GDP growth is estimated by the European Commission at 1.2 per cent in the current year after 0.2 per cent in the reporting period. Equipment investment is expected to increase significantly again in 2026 at 5.5 per cent. Government investment is also expected to grow more strongly again with an increase of 2.4 per cent. The European Commission expects constant GDP growth of 1.2 per cent for Germany in 2027. At 4.7 per cent, investment in equipment is again expected to be one of the growth drivers in this period.
Further positive development forecast for German IT market
According to the industry association Bitkom, the German IT market is also expected to show stronger growth again in 2026, albeit at a lower level than the European market. At 5.9 per cent, the growth rate is expected to be higher than in the reporting period (5.2 per cent). Further recovery and growth of 4.0 per cent is forecast for hardware sales (reporting period: 3.8 per cent). At 3.4 per cent, IT services are also expected to grow faster than in 2025 (2.7 per cent). At 10.2 per cent, the highest growth rate is once again expected for the software segment; software thus remains the growth driver in the German IT market.
According to the industry association numeum, growth of 4.3 per cent is forecast for the French IT market in 2026. France is one of the most important national markets within the Bechtle Group.
IT market faces major challenges
With regard to the expected future economic situation in the relevant national markets, the Bechtle Group sees no concrete influences on demand from either a change in the legal framework or the implementation of major political measures. However, the macroeconomic situation in Bechtle’s key national markets, Germany and France in particular, continues to be characterised by tension. At the beginning of 2026, the IT market have alsobeen burdened by the AI-driven high demand for memory components, which has already led to price increases for PCs. Further price increases for PCs and also for servers and storage are to follow in the first half of 2026. Due to the high demand, the potential risk of supply difficulties and shortages is also repeatedly mentioned. Price increases and possible delivery difficulties could lead to customers postponing projects or being unable to realise them. This could also have a negative impact on Bechtle’s earnings. The development is very uncertain and dynamic, meaning that reliable forecasts are currently not possible. Bechtle systematically accompanies the development in close dialogue with manufacturing partners and customers. However, substantial direct and indirect influences on the economic development of the Bechtle Group cannot be ruled out, even if they cannot be reliably categorised and assessed in terms of probability of occurrence, extent and duration. Exchange rate developments do not play a major role in most countries in which Bechtle is present, as these belong to the euro area and therefore, purchases and billing mostly take place in euros.